文旅

　　从香港中国旅行社集团（港中旅）1928年成立以来，中国现代旅游业发展历经近百年历史，非常不容易，值得回望和研究。

　　新中国成立以后的1971年周恩来总理主持召开全国旅游工作会议，中国旅游事业开始逐步得以恢复，到1976年，中国接待外国旅游者近5万人次。到1977年，中国旅游涉外饭店有137座，客房1.5万间，床位数3万张，旅游业发展底子非常薄，全年来中国旅游入境人数为57万人次，旅游创汇收入仅2.62亿美元。

　　1978年，中国中央政府成立中国旅行游览事业管理总局（原国家旅游局），为国务院直属单位。

　　1979年，改革开放的中国在北戴河召开“拨乱反正”后的第一次全国旅游工作会议，决定在每个省市自治区直辖市建设一座“旅游涉外饭店”，旅游业开启蓬勃发展模式，旅游行业开始定位为“中国改革开放的窗口行业”。

　　此后的1980年创办深圳经济特区（市），1988年创立海南经济特区（省）和1992年的邓小平南巡及上海浦东乃至全国的全面经济改革开放，都给中国旅游业经济发展带来了非常好的新机遇。1992年，中国第一批十二个“国家级旅游度假区”创立并推出，对中国传统旅游业转型升级做出了重大引导性行业经济发展行动。

　　1992年之后中国观光旅游发展迅猛。1996年“中国休闲度假游”旅游年在海南启幕，中国的休闲度假旅游经济从“海南亚龙湾”起步一发而不可收拾。

　　自1995年之后，中国旅游业经济发展几乎都是以两位数字增长。中国旅游业在整个中国经济大发展中真正起到了“先导”和“带动”作用，中国旅游行业、中国旅游产业和中国旅游事业真的是蒸蒸日上。

　　在中国改革开放的四十多年时间里，中国旅游业发展的关联度和贡献率是别的行业不可替代的。因为旅游业的独特性和文化社会属性非常强，所以西方国家特别重视旅游行业、旅游产业和旅游事业的发展，比如：美国、英国、法国、德国、日本等这些西方列强都是“旅游和文化融合渗透的高手”。

　　1993年初，本人进入海南省旅游局工作，一路走来，近30年没有离开过旅游行业，应该是对中国现代旅游业发展的全过程有一个基本了解。我非常热爱旅游行业工作，在二三十年的工作时间里写过不少关于酒店行业和旅游景区投资经营方面的文章，在政府部门和大型企业工作的市场一线统计过不少旅游行业现实数据，如：《海南旅游行业市场调查报告》、《饭店业投资与管理》、以及连续三年编写了《世界酒店•军林报告》（年度白皮书）等等。

　　2019年前的中国旅游业经济，它无论是每年以两位数字增长，还是在全国经济总量中综合贡献率占百分之十以上，中国旅游业经济在世界旅游业经济发展中都占有非常重要的位置。我们可以想象一下，一个世界第一的旅游输出国和世界第四的旅游输入国对世界旅游业经济作出过多大的贡献？

　　2009年，中国国务院【国办发】41号文件《关于加快发展旅游业的意见》“总体要求”中非常明确地写到：“把旅游业培育成国民经济的战略性支柱产业和人民群众更加满意的现代服务业”。2019年中国国务院【国办发】41号文件《关于进一步激发文化和旅游消费潜力的意见》中特别强调：“以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，顺应文化和旅游消费提质转型升级新趋势，深化文化和旅游领域供给侧结构性改革，从供需两端发力，不断激发文化和旅游消费潜力。努力使我国文化和旅游消费设施更加完善，消费结构更加合理，消费环境更加优化，文化和旅游产品、服务供给更加丰富。推动全国居民文化和旅游消费规模保持快速增长态势，对经济增长的带动作用持续增强”。

　　从这两个重要文件中可以看出，中国中央政府对旅游行业宏观发展，对旅游产业具体运营，对旅游业事业长远布局是很重视的。

　　然而，时间进入2020年，一场突如其来的“新冠病毒疫情”把整个中国乃至全球旅游业现状“砸的稀巴烂”。整整三年，我们有多少期待和失望？有多少痛楚和梦想之微光……？三年来，中国旅游业经济发展现状简直是全面的“断崖式坠落”，几乎是坠落到了悬崖之下的海平面。

　　当我们出行在美丽的风景中时，突然有关方面告知大家要集中隔离；

　　当我们在美好的相聚中时，手机突然收到各种等级的“弹窗”或“黄码”、“红码”；

　　当我们在重要项目即将会谈和签约落地时，单位突然接到各级通知大家要居家封控，不能出门……

　　等等这些，让无数的我们极其无奈地“老老实实”地停下脚步，暂停一切“工作着，旅游着，快乐着”！期盼的望眼中，众多方面的旅游产业经济开始“美丽断崖”式坠落再坠落……

　　2022年末的今天，我们不需要再看到所谓的“形象和高光”的数字及中英文对照的图表，众所周知，当下许多漂亮的数字及图表都是虚假的“应时之作”。因为旅游产业关联度非常高，“吃住行游购娱”六要素中几乎涵盖了全部的社会供需消费需求，中国旅游产业经济发展是拉动内需的最有效的“发动机”，“双循环”中的“内循环”在未来三五年极其重要！

　　前几天，我看到了中国旅游协会副会长兼秘书长张润钢新写的一篇文章，里面已经很认真地阐述一些新观点和发布了不少新数据，令中国旅游从业人员有多警醒。如果说，中国旅游行业企业总量有100万家（包括宾馆酒店、景区景点、旅行社、车船公司、餐饮店、中介服务和各类配套企业等等），那么现实存活的企业数可能不到50%了（前不久我看到一个数据，说新冠疫情三年来全国餐饮行业企业已经倒闭了49万多家）。

　　抛开诸多数据不提，在此，我们很有必要向中央最高层呼吁一下，国家的文旅部中应该增设一个“旅游事业管理局”（由某副部长兼任局长），就像中宣部内有一个“电影局”一样，中国旅游事业是国家对外政治经济文化发展中非常重要一个方面。

　　当前，我们试想一下，新冠病毒疫情防控下的三年里，如果没有了人流动和交互，没有人的“旅游着”的快乐参与和面对面的经济往来，怎么可能有庞大的占国民生产总值的11%强旅游业综合贡献率？十几万亿“经济创造”还会在哪里？全国还有8000万至1个亿的“大旅游从业者”目前怎么工作和未来怎么活下去？

　　大家都说2022年是最难的一年！然而，2022年即将过去，老百姓和旅游从业者依然没有看到“中国旅游事业”的“旭日冉冉升起”，因为，大家日常的面对依然是三天两头的封控和几乎是天天的“核酸检测”……

　　大家每天在算账：核酸检测没完没了和经常性的不能出门忙工作业务，整个旅游产业经济可能就毁了，旅游行业经济毁了就没有了旅游行业，没有了旅游行业那么整个国家的“旅游事业”也就没了。毁掉一件东西很容易，但人民的“美丽事业”和“美好江山”毁了就得不偿失了。

　　全国旅游行业工作者，长时间在沉重、忍耐和痛楚中爬行着……然而，即便是“旅游事业”断崖式坠落到了海平面，我们依然还会坚持理想信念，还是会相信我们的中央政府！相信脚底下还有孕育无穷生命力之大海和大地呢。

　　今天，我们在预测着未来三个月或者是最长六个月，新冠病毒疫情会逐渐好转，“核酸检测”和“疫情防控封控”会彻底消失。如果真是这样，那么中国旅游事业还是有救的，否则那些个巨大的酒店集团，庞大的旅游景区集群，以及众多特色旅游小镇、美丽乡村、全域旅游胜地和欣欣向荣的“金山银山”都将是““水月镜花”和“空中楼阁”。最后，2022年的全国旅游业经济发展数据将会是百分之零点几或百分之几？谁也说不清楚。同样，未来因为新冠疫情带来的旅游业“次生灾害”有多大？谁也说不清楚。

　　总之，我和我们十分期待2023年鲜活的春天或生机勃勃的夏天来临；我和我们十分期待中国旅游事业的鲜活春天和生机勃勃的夏天尽快回来……

2022.11.30于海南

　　吴军林：著名文旅专家、世界酒店联盟主席、联合国经社部国际旅游与酒店联合总会执行主席、中爱国际文旅集团董事会主席，中经网●中经在线联席主席。

　　Beautiful Cliff -- A Moment Review and Outlook of Tourism Industry, Tourism Industry and Tourism

　　Since the establishment of Hong Kong China Travel Service Group (Hong Kong China Travel Service) in 1928, the development of China's modern tourism industry has experienced nearly a hundred years of history, which is very difficult and worth looking back and studying.

　　After the founding of the People's Republic of China, Premier Zhou Enlai presided over the National Tourism Conference in 1971. China's tourism industry began to recover gradually. By 1976, China had received nearly 50000 foreign tourists. By 1977, there were 137 foreign-related hotels in China, 15000 guest rooms and 30000 beds. The foundation of tourism development was very thin. The number of inbound tourists to China throughout the year was 570000, and the tourism income was only 262 million dollars.

　　In 1978, the Central Government of China established the China Tourism Administration (formerly the National Tourism Administration) as a unit directly under the State Council.

　　In 1979, the reform and opening up China held the first national tourism working conference in Beidaihe after "bringing order out of chaos". It was decided to build a "tourist hotel" in each province, municipality, autonomous region and municipality directly under the Central Government. The tourism industry started to develop vigorously. The tourism industry began to position itself as "the window industry of China's reform and opening up".

　　Since then, the establishment of Shenzhen Special Economic Zone (City) in 1980, Hainan Special Economic Zone (Province) in 1988, Deng Xiaoping's inspection tour to the south in 1992 and the comprehensive economic reform and opening up in Pudong, Shanghai and even the whole country have all brought great new opportunities to the economic development of China's tourism industry. In 1992, the first batch of 12 "national tourist resorts" in China were founded and launched, which made a significant guiding industrial economic development action for the transformation and upgrading of China's traditional tourism industry.

　　After 1992, China's tourism has developed rapidly. In 1996, the "China Leisure and Holiday Tourism" tourism year was launched in Hainan. China's leisure and holiday tourism economy started from the "Hainan Yalong Bay" and became uncontrollable.

　　Since 1995, the economic development of China's tourism industry has almost always increased by two figures. China's tourism industry has really played a "leading" and "driving" role in the overall development of China's economy, and China's tourism industry, tourism industry and tourism industry are really thriving.

　　During more than 40 years of China's reform and opening up, the relevance and contribution rate of China's tourism development are irreplaceable by other industries.Because of the uniqueness and strong cultural and social attributes of tourism, western countries pay special attention to the development of tourism industry, tourism industry and tourism. For example, the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Japan and other western powers are "masters of tourism and cultural integration".

　　In the spring of 1993, I joined Hainan Provincial Tourism Administration and worked all the way. I haven't left the tourism industry in the past 30 years. I should have a basic understanding of the whole process of China's modern tourism development. I love my work in the tourism industry very much. I have written a lot of articles about the hotel industry and the investment and management of tourist attractions in my 20 to 30 years of work. I have made statistics on the real data of the tourism industry in the front line of the market where government departments and large enterprises work, such as Hainan Tourism Industry Market Survey, Hotel Industry Investment and Management As well as preparing the World Hotel • Military Forest Report (annual white paper) for three consecutive years.

　　Before 2019, China's tourism economy has played a very important role in the development of the world's tourism economy, whether it is growing by two figures every year or accounting for more than 10% of the total national economy. Can we imagine how much a world's first tourism exporting country and the world's fourth tourism importing country will contribute to the world tourism economy?

　　In 2009, the General Requirements of the Opinions on Accelerating the Development of Tourism (GBF No. 41) issued by the State Council of China clearly stated that "tourism should be cultivated into a strategic pillar industry of the national economy and a modern service industry more satisfactory to the people". In 2019, the Opinions on Further Stimulating the Potential of Cultural and Tourism Consumption (GBF No. 41) of the State Council of China emphasized that:   Rich. We will continue to promote the rapid growth of the scale of residents' culture and tourism consumption across the country, and continue to enhance its role in driving economic growth. ".

　　It can be seen from these two important documents that the Chinese central government attaches great importance to the macro development of the tourism industry, the specific operation of the tourism industry, and the long-term layout of the tourism industry.

　　However, in 2020, a sudden "COVID-19 epidemic" smashed the status quo of the whole China and even the global tourism industry. How many expectations and disappointments have we had in the past three years? How much pain and the glimmer of dreams? Over the past three years, China's tourism economy has developed in a comprehensive way, falling almost to the sea level below the cliff.

　　When we were traveling in the beautiful scenery, suddenly the relevant parties told us to concentrate on isolation;

　　When we were together, the mobile phone suddenly received various levels of "pop-up" or "yellow code", "red code";

　　When we were about to discuss and sign an important project, the unit suddenly received a notice from all levels that everyone should stay at home and not go out

　　And so on, let countless of us very reluctantly "honestly" stop, pause everything "working, traveling, happy"! In the eyes of expectation, the economy of tourism industry in many aspects began to fall down again like a "beautiful cliff"

　　At the end of 2022, we do not need to see the so-called "image and highlight" figures and Chinese English charts. As we all know, many beautiful figures and charts are false "timely works". Because the tourism industry is highly related, the six elements of "food, housing, travel, shopping and entertainment" almost cover all the social demand, supply and consumption. The economic development of China's tourism industry is the most effective "engine" to stimulate domestic demand, and the "inner cycle" in the "double cycle" will be extremely important in the next three to five years!

　　A few days ago, I saw a new article written by Zhang Rungang, vice president and secretary-general of the China Tourism Association, which has seriously expounded some new ideas and released a lot of new data, which has alerted Chinese tourism practitioners. If the total number of Chinese tourism and shipping enterprises is 1 million (including hotels, scenic spots, travel agencies, vehicle and ship companies, catering stores, intermediary services and various supporting enterprises, etc.), the number of surviving enterprises may be less than 50% (I saw a data not long ago that more than 490000 catering enterprises in China have closed down in the past three years due to the COVID-19).

　　Leaving aside many data, it is necessary for us to appeal to the highest level of the central government that a "Tourism Administration" (with a vice minister as the director) should be added to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism. Just like a "Film Bureau" in the Propaganda Department of the Central Committee, China's tourism industry is a very important aspect of the country's foreign political, economic and cultural development.

　　At present, let's imagine that in the three years under the control of the COVID-19 epidemic, if there is no flow and interaction of people, no happy participation of "tourists" and face-to-face economic exchanges, how can there be a huge comprehensive contribution rate of tourism accounting for 11% of GDP? Where will the "economic creation" of more than 10 trillion yuan be? There are still 80 million to 100 million "big tourism practitioners" in China. How do they work now and survive in the future?

　　Everyone says 2022 is the hardest year! However, the year 2022 is about to pass, and the common people and tourism practitioners still do not see the "rising sun" of "China's tourism", because the daily face of everyone is still a three-day containment and almost daily "nucleic acid detection"

　　Everyone is counting every day: nucleic acid detection is endless and you can't go out to work frequently. The entire tourism industry economy may be destroyed. If the tourism industry economy is destroyed, there will be no tourism industry. Without the tourism industry, there will be no "tourism" in the whole country. It is easy to destroy something, but it is not worth the loss to destroy the people's "beautiful cause" and "beautiful country".

　　Workers in the national tourism industry have been crawling in the heavy, patient and painful conditions for a long time... However, even if the "tourism industry" falls to the sea level like a precipice, we will still adhere to our ideals and beliefs and still believe in our central government! I believe that there is still the sea and the earth under my feet, which can breed infinite vitality.

　　Today, we are predicting that in the next three months or the longest six months, the COVID-19 epidemic will gradually improve, and the "nucleic acid detection" and "epidemic prevention and control" will completely disappear. If this is the case, then China's tourism industry will be saved. Otherwise, those huge hotel groups, huge clusters of tourist attractions, as well as many characteristic tourist towns, beautiful villages, global tourist attractions and the thriving "Jinshan Yinshan" will be "water moon mirror flowers" and "castle in the air". Finally, what percentage will the national tourism economic development data in 2022 be? No one can say clearly. Similarly, how many "secondary disasters" will be brought about by the COVID-19 epidemic in the tourism industry in the future? No one can say clearly.

　　In short, we are looking forward to the arrival of the spring or the summer in 2023; We and I are looking forward to the bright spring and vibrant summer of China's tourism industry coming back as soon as possible

2022.11.30 in Hainan

来源：泛旅通讯社

发布：中经在线

编辑：熊辉 王海珠

作者：吴军林

　　作为经济发展的“助推者”，中经在线联合北京各省市驻京机构商务协会、京忠智库及各省市人民政府驻京办、各省市商协会、上市公司、500强企业、央企国企、各大金融机构资源，被誉为赋能经济“三驾马车+”超级集群综合赋能平台，“融媒体+商协会+专家智库+”联手发力，助力地方政府招商引资，以独特的资源优势赋能企业发展！